Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.597401 0.690437 0.792281 0.911919 1.048489 1.199401 1.378680
2025-06-08 0.424387 0.546349 0.693688 0.884220 1.123481 1.413341 1.790462
2025-06-15 0.361031 0.502123 0.684962 0.937986 1.277621 1.716131 2.323397
2025-06-22 0.290947 0.431948 0.625777 0.909636 1.312309 1.860181 2.658651
2025-06-29 0.240061 0.377506 0.576488 0.882654 1.338285 1.986854 2.974393
2025-07-06 0.202383 0.335304 0.536954 0.861320 1.365162 2.111750 3.293482
2025-07-13 0.181324 0.314840 0.526062 0.879552 1.449903 2.325560 3.759675
2025-07-20 0.169171 0.306563 0.532349 0.923997 1.577914 2.614316 4.364225
2025-07-27 0.155764 0.294009 0.529572 0.952284 1.681231 2.871605 4.939708
2025-08-03 0.141142 0.277119 0.517043 0.961851 1.752968 3.082217 5.455136
2025-08-10 0.126566 0.258186 0.498395 0.957955 1.799928 3.253749 5.917164
2025-08-17 0.113187 0.239621 0.478025 0.948168 1.834444 3.405266 6.355111
2025-08-24 0.101483 0.223056 0.459974 0.941643 1.875957 3.575685 6.847224
2025-08-31 0.088507 0.202140 0.431146 0.911367 1.870194 3.661025 7.194428
2025-09-07 0.085944 0.202790 0.445069 0.966588 2.033536 4.070832 8.174862
2025-09-14 0.075581 0.184926 0.418926 0.937415 2.027043 4.158825 8.552162
2025-09-21 0.066666 0.169008 0.394880 0.909654 2.020022 4.244032 8.929283
2025-09-28 0.059311 0.155642 0.374695 0.887703 2.022379 4.346957 9.348303
2025-10-05 0.055741 0.150888 0.373134 0.906463 2.112809 4.634390 10.162076
2025-10-12 0.054272 0.151159 0.383092 0.952189 2.265960 5.062670 11.298347
2025-10-19 0.051790 0.148481 0.385781 0.981291 2.384605 5.427302 12.328010
2025-10-26 0.048360 0.142817 0.380596 0.991133 2.460226 5.705374 13.193136
2025-11-02 0.044497 0.135404 0.370195 0.987125 2.503076 5.914760 13.923609